Wednesday, January 17, 2007

Republicans will get their chance to "cut" after all



The numbers are coming in. Now we are going to find out exactly what Mike Bishop means when he says "cut".



Michigan's sagging budget is $850 million out of whack, state fiscal experts reported Tuesday, portending possible tax increases and a school aid cut of up to $220 per student.



Educators say that with the school year half over -- and binding union contracts -- they don't know how they can swallow a bite that big.



Love how the News managed to squeeze both "tax increases" and "unions" in the first two paragraphs. Oh yeah, they're good. They are experts at framing.



Tuesday's deficit projections -- made by the House and Senate fiscal agencies and based on actual tax revenues through December -- were the worst yet for this budget year. Earlier estimates had pegged the shortfall at $500 million.



We are looking at some big numbers.



The House Fiscal Agency, an arm of the state House, said tax receipts are coming in $570 million under projections. Additional spending for Medicaid, prisons and other programs will compound the state's financial woes by another $240 million to $280 million, the agency projected.



That adds up to $810 million to $850 million in red ink, including a school aid pot that is $374 million in the hole.



If the state decides to cover the school aid shortage solely by cutting per-pupil aid, it would total $220 per student. That's roughly the equivalent of the fall increase.



"Schools are potentially facing enormous cuts in the middle of the year," Gov. Jennifer Granholm confirmed Tuesday.



She and lawmakers, however, may cushion the blow to school funding by siphoning some money from special school programs or by cutting deeper in other areas. Moving nonviolent inmates from state prisons to tethers and other cost-cutting have been discussed.



And it's not just the schools. It's everything.



Schools aren't the only ones in trouble. Others include colleges and cities, counties and townships, which could see cuts to revenue sharing used for police and fire protection, trash pickup, road repairs and other services.



Life is expensive. Even with a small bump in revenue, we will still come up short.



State revenue will be up 1 percent in the next financial year. That's well short of spending increases demanded by rising health care costs, already approved state employee pay raises, climbing welfare, Medicaid and prison caseloads and other expenses.



Possible solutions? This next paragraph cracked me up, given the editorials from the News lately.



The governor has not come out in favor of raising taxes to solve the problem, but she has appointed a panel headed by former Govs. William Milliken and James Blanchard to make budget-balancing proposals, which some say are likely to include tax increases.



Some say? The News practically guarantees it, is obviously very much against it, and in the process they are whipping up the rabble to a frenzy already, making progress in the public arena difficult at best, impossible at worst. Why does the Detroit News hate Michigan?



We are now going to find out what cutting $850 million more means. We are going to find out who can sacrifice some quality of life. We start with the kids, the poor, the sick, public safety...



And then we will see if the calls for "tax cuts" still continue.



I, for one, won't be surprised when they do.